Arbitrage and Hedge Bet Calculator: Stakes and Profit

Two sportsbooks sometimes price the same event so differently that betting both sides locks a profit. More often you just hold a bet and want to cut the risk before the game ends. This calculator does both: it sizes the stakes, shows what comes back whichever side wins, and tells you plainly when the prices don't allow a profit. It runs in your browser, sends nothing anywhere and forgets your numbers when you close the page.

What you enter and what you get

You enter

• What do you want to work out?: Arbitrage splits a new stake. Hedge covers a bet you already hold.
• Best odds, outcome 1: American, decimal or fractional.
• Best odds, outcome 2: American, decimal or fractional odds.
• Best odds, outcome 3 (optional): Leave blank for a two-way market.
• Total to stake ($): an amount in dollars.
• Your original stake ($): an amount in dollars.
• Odds on your original bet: American, decimal or fractional odds.
• Odds now available on the other side: American, decimal or fractional odds.

You get

• Arbitrage profit
• Stake on outcome 1 (+110)
• Stake on outcome 2 (+110)
• Total return, any outcome
• Profit
• Return on money staked
• Sum of implied probabilities
• Hedge stake for an equal result
• Original bet wins: result

What is a hedge bet?

A hedge bet is a second bet on the opposite side of one you already hold, placed to lock in a result before the event ends. You hedge when your first bet is looking good and you would rather secure part of it than risk losing it all.

Say you bet $100 at +300 (decimal 4.00) and the other side is now offered at +130 (decimal 2.30). The hedge stake is $100 × 4.00 ÷ 2.30, about $173.91. If your first bet wins, you get $400 back and have staked $273.91, so you profit about $126.09. If the other side wins, the hedge returns $400 as well, and the profit is the same $126.09. Either way you end on the same result, and you gave up the chance of the bigger payout on your first bet alone.

Hedging does not create value by itself. It trades variance for certainty, and the result is only a profit when the new price is better than the one you started with. The calculator above works this out when you switch to hedge mode.

How the calculator works

1. Turn each price into an implied probability: 1 divided by the decimal odds.
2. Add the probabilities up. Under 100% means an arbitrage exists; over 100% means splitting the stake locks a loss.
3. Size each stake in proportion to its implied probability, so every outcome returns the same amount.
4. For a hedge, bet original stake × original decimal odds ÷ new decimal odds on the other side, which makes both results equal.

A worked example

Two books both offer +110 on opposite sides of an even match, and you have $100 to split. Then, in a second case, you hold $100 on a +300 bet and the other side has moved to +130.

Arbitrage

Hedge

What the calculator leaves out

• Prices move. An arbitrage can disappear between your first and second bet.
• Bets can be voided or limited, and some sites restrict accounts that win this way.
• It ignores bonus terms, fees and different rules for ties or overtime.

How we checked it

Before it went on the page we checked it against cases worked by hand: +110 on both sides has to lock in 5%, -110 on both sides has to show a locked loss, and a $100 bet at +300 hedged at +130 has to leave you the same either way. The calculator is also run against thousands of odd entries such as blanks, zeros and huge numbers, so a bad entry shows a plain prompt and never a wrong number. The worked example above comes from the same code the calculator runs.

At a sweepstakes sportsbook

Sweepstakes sportsbooks price their own markets and pay out in their own sweepstakes currency, so a price at one site isn't automatically a price you can pair with another. Check each site's rules on what can be redeemed before you rely on a locked result. For the bigger picture of how these sites differ, see Sweepstakes vs Social vs Real-Money Casinos.

Betting math is not betting advice. Only play with money you can afford to lose, and if gambling stops being fun, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.

18+ only. ReloadRush is a free rewards site, not a casino: we do not offer gambling and do not sell coins or game credits. Not affiliated with any sweepstakes, social or online casino operator. Rules and state laws change, so check the operator's terms before you play.